Predicting hospital demands

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Digimap Case Study:
Estimating demand for acute hospital use in the South East London Thames Gateway area

Author

Meic Goodyear

Title

Estimating demand for acute hospital use in the South East London Thames Gateway area

Date

2005

Application Area

Health Services Planning

Application to other subject areas

GIS

Project type

NHS/University collaborative study

Summary

All hospital admissions during a three year period of residents of the six boroughs that made up the NHS South East London sector were analysed by Local Authority ward of residence and hospital of admission. Using population projections from the Greater London Authority and forecasts of an overall increase of almost 200,000 people resulting the Thames Gateway projected demand for hospital admission were calculated for a ten year period, including an age-standardised hospitalisation rate for each wards, together with associated travel details, and estimates of the concomitant outpatient load were also produced.

Datasets Used

Name: NHS boundaries, Postcodes file, Rasters, NHS HES & Clearnet data, 2001 Census data; population projections to 2015; NHS organisation codes & data standards
Source: Digimap, UKBORDERS, NHS clearing service, ONS, GLA; NHS organisation Codes Service; NHS Information Authority

Aims and Objectives

To determine expected changes in demand for hospital admission in SE London on the basis of current utilisation patterns, in the context of intensive urban regeneration and the political decision that no new hospitals would be built.

Methodology

All admissions for a three year period (2000-2002) were analysed by ward of residence, age, and hospital to get a 3-year average (more stable than individual year’s data). Baseline rates (age standardised) were produced using 2001 census data, and applied to population projection at LA ward level (the finest granularity for which figures were available) to obtain predicted levels for each year to 2015, with 95% confidence intervals. Data could be further analysed at clinical speciality level or individual clinical condition if required. Distances from ward centroids to hospitals in the sector were calculated using Pythagoras’s Theorem, and road journey distances were calculated using Infomap 7.0 software. Total transport burden resulting from hospital admissions and associated outpatient attendances were calculated, and “excess distance” travelled resulting from use of hospitals other than the nearest to home was calculated and mapped using MapInfo 7.5. Reports were issued to each PCT, and the Strategic Health Authority.

Additional Information

Powerpoint presentation, given to Royal Geographical Society conference 2005

Map 1: Thames gateway "Zones of Change" (NB: do not observe Borough or Ward boundaries).

Publishing Institution

Department of Geography-Queen Mary's University of London

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